There are several ways to look at the next presidential election in 2012, especially since the current and new president, Barack Obama, appears unuusually vulnerable to being limited to one term.

This early vulnerability, after only about one year in office, could, following the 2010 mid-term elections this year, provoke an intraparty challenge to the president, as happened in 1980 when then-Senator Ted Kennedy took on incumbent President Jimmy Carter. Kennedy ultimately failed in that effort, but a politically wounded Carter went on to defeat by Ronald Reagan in the November election that followed.

Although it would take a huge wave reversal this year in the congressional elections, the Republicans might take control of one or both houses of Congress as early as this year.

All of this remains speculative, at this point, since so many events and conditions can intervene in an eight-month and thirty-two month interval. Political fortunes rarely go very long in a straight line either up or down.

But if all this predictive caution isn’t enough, I suggest that an even much longer period of time may be in order for political and policy planning for candidates and their political parties if they are not only to win the next political cycles, but govern successfully as well.

Barack Obama has been a political phenomenon. In 2008, the odds-on favorite to win the Democratic nomination was Hillary Clinton, then a U.S. senator from New York.

But it was the novice US.senator from Illinois, Mr. Obama, who survived a long, closely fought battle up to the Democratic convention, and then went on to defeat Republican nominee John McCain in November. Although the latter was in the end a decisive victory for the first black U.S. president, it should not be forgotten that following their own convention and just before the mortgage banking crisis, the McCain-Palin ticket had pulled ahead in the race. The financial meltdown effectively ended the presidential race, but without it, it is not dispositively clear who wins.

In any event, Barack Obama did win, and did have a reasonably good idea for some time before election day that he would become the next president. While there is some evidence that Mr. Obama and his advisers, and certainly Democratic congressional leaders, had some idea of “what” they wanted to do if they won, there is now little evidence that any of them, especially in the executive branch, had thought out “how” they would accomplish their goals.

The “what” of the Obama-Pelosi-Reid political team has turned out to be a radical series of public policies which are mostly quite unpopular with U.S. voters. Even with huge majorities in both houses of Congress, they have been unable to pass very much legislation. In an historically brief time, in fact, they have squandered their decisive 2006 and 2008 victories, and appear he…

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Perhaps the most standout feature of this revamp is the improved categorization that takes a ton of work off the plate of the user. The guys at Quicken have developed a learning algorithm for Quicken Online that allows users to self-tag, with the Quicken Online software remembering those tags and then applying them to other people's data. The more people who use it, the smarter the tagging gets. In my tests, the automatic categorizing/tagging works exceedingly well. Though Quicken Essentials takes a lot of cues from Mint.com, it's method of categorization is different (and superior). Mint obtains its categorization by performing a relatively simple Yellow Pages look-up. Later in the year Intuit will be combining the two approaches and hopes to achieve 95% categorization accuracy (Intuit bought Mint in 2009).

Out of the box, Quicken Essentials supports 12,000 US and Canadian banks. That will grow to 16,000 banks in the next 2-3 months. That's full coverage of every credit union and bank in the US. Transferring and converting your data from Quicken for Windows to Quicken Essentials worked pretty well in my tests. I just saved a copy of my Quicken for Windows file, moved it to my Mac, and double-clicked on it. All my data was easily imported without any errors. Keep in mind that I was only working with two years of Quicken data though. Quicken Essentials allows for conversion from previous Mac programs, Quicken for Windows 2007+, and the now defunct Microsoft Money.

If you're like me and just want a simple program to view all your financial accounts, see where your money is going, and keep track of balances and upcoming bills, I highly recommend Quicken Essentials. If, however, you're a Quicken power user who needs investing and planning tools, investment buy and sell tracking, TurboTax integration, or in-app bill pay, then QEM is not for you. Think of this edition of Quicken Essentials as iPhoto for your finances. It presents a snapshot of your finances and transactions in a simple to use interface. If you need more than that, it's best to look at iBank or Quicken Premier for Windows running under VMWare Fusion or Parallels.

Quicken Essentials for the Mac goes on sale today for $69 and requires Mac OS X 10.5 or 10.6, an Intel-based Mac, and 1GB of hard disk space.

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Once You Reach Your Financial Security Goals, What's Next?

Wise budgeting, spending, and saving will help you build a retirement fund and meet your other financial goals, but what happens then? Finance blog Get Rich Slowly takes a look at what to do once you've feathered your financial nest.

Photo by pfala.

At 26 years old, entrepreneur Erica Douglass found herself in the enviable position of having a surplus of cash after selling her online business. Once she established a retirement fund and paid off debt, Douglass had to figure out what to do with the income that continued to roll in from her new business venture.

Rather than blow tons of cash on impulsive purchases just because she can, Douglass limits most spending to things that allow her to live a more fulfilled life. For instance, instead of buying a new car every year, Douglass employs a personal chef to make dishes that make living with an autoimmune illness easier.

It has been more than two years since I sold my business, and I am happier than I have ever been. I made different choices than most: We rent a house instead of owning (a savings of nearly $4,000/month in our neighborhood – more than our monthly rent payment!); we only have basic cable; we don't have a landline, credit card debt, car payments, or student loans.

I chose, instead of buying more Stuff, to live a more fulfilled life. For me, even more important than holding onto my money tightly was to learn to let it go – to give it to others in exchange for work well done, and to trust that they could do tasks well. It's one of the best decisions I've ever made.

Though most of us aren't able to afford the luxuries of a personal chef or full-time housekeeper, Douglass makes an interesting point. If you have a surplus of cash left over after paying your bills and adding to your savings each month, maybe blowing it on a fancy dinner or a new electronic gadget isn't worth it in the long run. Instead, consider spending it on something that adds to your overall quality of life—like an accountant to do your taxes, or commercial productivity software that will help you more easily manage all your work tasks.

What would you do if you had a batch of extra cash to spend as you wanted? Would you hire a personal assistant to deal with all the chores you don't like, or blow it on something frivolous like good cognac or a box of truffles? Talk about it in the comments.

If you want to take control of your life, there are certain areas that require persistent tracking.  In order to track your life and make appropriate changes, you need to know what’s going on and to do that you need to track what’s going on.

Some people need to get a handle on their time (tools to track time wasted online).  Others need to better control their finances (tools for tracking expenses and budgeting).  There are also other resources that other people need to track.  These days there are tools that help in this task of tracking life’s intricacies but many of them are too complex for the needs of the everyday person.  We need something simple that we’ll actually learn and use for it to be a help.

That is why I would like to introduce you to a new start up you can use to track your life called 1DayLater.  The creators of 1DayLater originally started the project to help them track their valuable time as freelancers.  It turned out to be a tool simple enough that anyone can use and benefit from.

In my opinion a useful tool has two attributes : usability and benefit.  Let me show you how 1DayLater fits both of those attributes when it comes to tracking life.

Signing Up & Registering Is Virtually Painless!

The easier a website makes signing up and registering the better.  Obviously they should take security precautions but when they make it so complicated that you need to consult a help file or forums just to figure out how to register, they need to back off a bit.  1DayLater made the process a cinch by asking only the basics (there’s also a line for your phone number but it’s only optional).

Signing In Is A Cinch!

Once again, going with the “easier is better” philosophy, 1DayLater hits the nail on the proverbial head with the login process!  Email-password, bing!  You’re in!

Track Your Life With a Log!

Once logged in you are faced with the opportunity to begin logging your life!  To begin with, you can start logging your time by hitting the “start timer” button.  When you stop the timer, the time is automatically entered into the “value” field which can tell what kind of measurement you are trying to log.  You can also manually enter measurements into this field.  You can log measurements such as time, money and mileage.  Then you can tag the lot with a label in the “project/client” field and add the date and a note to finish off the log.  It’s all pretty straight forward.

Glance At Your Latest Activities

As you log your life, you can get a quick look at the activities you are logging.  They are sorted by date and project / client tag (which you can assign your own colors to in order to have a visual to keep them separate here and in the charts in the analysis area).  Here you also have the ability to edit the logs and delete them altogether. Very handy!

A Visual Analysis Of Your Life

There is also a nifty chart showing off time spent on different projects.  This could be key to getting an overall idea of where your time is going.  I didn’t see charts for mileage or money so I personally hope they are also incorporated too.

The Future Of 1DayLater COULD Be In Your Hands!

All I am saying is that they are a new start up and are working hard on new features!  For instance, they have released the ability to export data into a spreadsheet and are working out the bugs there.  They are also working on the ability to output to invoices and mileage claims as well as some apps.  As a new start up, they have been smart enough to offer a feedback forum to share what you would like to see them develop and a voting system to vote on other people’s ideas using Uservoice.

Right now 1DayLater is free but in the future there may be some features that will not be.

Let us know what you think about 1DayLater as a new start up.  Also, how do you track your life?

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Well FWIW it is a 20 percent increase on those who live off dollar burgers.  Plus tax, that's about 21-22 percent increase in food costs for a good portion of America who can least afford it. If you eat these every day it amounts to about $250 dollar increase per person per year. 

I eat them all the time, had two of them last night.  I've basically lived off them (and other 99cent burgers) the last few months.  Didn't have to per se, but it allowed me enough to save for this shiny new i7 920 @ 4ghz I just finished building <1 month ago.

Even worse at least here in AZ, some republicans are trying to lower the minimum wage for people under 22.  So, in effect, in an area where youth discrentionary spending and construction account for much of our economy, you're going to see 20 percent increase in this age bracket's food costs (which dollar burgers are a staple of), while seeing their minimum wage (if passed) dropped from 7.25 to about 5.50.

Just wait until they use statistical models to show how this 'helped' employment, rofl. Yeah right.

Don't understimate how much this will impact people.  My guess, drop BK, and add McDonalds.  Whoever has the dollar menu will win more (or lose less). Margins might be worse, but you'll get the traffic.

It may not affect YOU, but such actions DO affect millions.  But this isn't the sky falling, just another example of those who can afford the least, getting screwed even more.  (and it won't stop there)

The worst part of the minimum wage decrease, is that there is a 3 month clause in it, which means if the employer doesn't want to pay for the increase (back to normal minimum wage) they can fire them.  What a nice way to treat those who are sure to be in even more debt than you were. 

Make them feel lucky to work for 5.50/hr, so much so, that they have to prove they are worth the extra money. Of course I can see some real scum bags just making a living of firing people after 3 months to keep labor costs down, regardless of performance. 

Also pretty much screws any hard working hs student who is trying to save for college during the summer break (which is gasp…3 months…meaning they would all be working for slave labor every summer).

But most already are, had minimum wage kept up with inflation, it would be 25/hr now.  (anyone making 25/hr or less is working for less than minimum wage….and how many would take offense to that…when in reality it's in support of them). It's because they forgot what they are worth.

But this will make you work harder. You make nothing, and are in debt. Thus you need to work harder and be more productive.  Except that won't change anything.

One final thing, that 250 dollar increase for double cheeseburgers in a year, is basically a full week of working for slave labor (40-50 hrs) for these poor young suckers.   So, if they work 3 months a year, roughly 1 week of that, or 1/12th of what they work for, sucked up by the increase by only 19 cents to a double cheeseburger.  Small amounts add up, especially when you work for crap.

Poo-pooing the increase is just bad analysis.

From David Streitfeld at the NY Times: U.S. Housing Aid Winds Down, and Cities Worry

Streitfeld discusses the Fed's MBS purchase program (95% complete and scheduled to end next month), the housing tax credit (contracts must be signed by the end of April, and deals closed by the end of June), and the slight tightening of FHA requirements.

Here is a list compiled in December of many Government housing support programs. Some have already ended (like the extension of the HAMP trial mods on Jan 31, 2010), and, as Streitfeld noted, others will end over the next few months.

One program that is being ramped up is Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives (HAFA: short sales and deed-in-lieu) that starts on April 5, 2010.

The housing bubble has burst. Many people with unfavorable mortgage terms are finding it more and more difficult to keep up with payments. Adjustable rate mortgages (ARMS), a huge number of which were written in the last two to three years, have raised interest rates higher than many mortgage holders can afford. The holders of other subprime mortgages and “exotic” products like interest only mortgages, have found it more and more difficult to negotiate refinancing terms. Consider these facts:

- The New York Times reports that about 1.5 million homes were in foreclosure at the end of June.

- Several million more mortgages may be in default in the coming year as the slowing economy reduces housing prices and jobs are lost.

- Nearly one in 10 mortgages is either delinquent or in foreclosure.

While many people are walking away from their dream homes and high-priced mortgages, others are determined to stay in. Some mortgage lenders, like JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America, have announced plans to reduce or place a moratorium on foreclosures and to negotiate interest rate cuts, at least in the short term. These plans will affect only a small percentage of mortgages, many of which are owned by investors, not the bank or company who accepts your payments and services the loans.

For those not lucky enough to fall under one of those umbrellas, another option may stop foreclosure, even on the very day the foreclosure is scheduled, give you a little breathing space and get you caught up on your mortgage payments, as well as other delinquent payments. It may even allow you to eliminate credit card debt and other unpaid personal debt like medical bills.

It's called Chapter 13 bankruptcy

Do not be put off by the name. Yes, this is a form of bankruptcy, but it does not require liquidation of your assets. Instead, Chapter 13 requires that you consolidate much of your debt into a monthly payment that you make to Chapter 13 trustee for a period of usually five years. The trustee then distributes your payments to creditors according to a plan you file with the U.S. Bankruptcy Court and claims on that money filed by your creditors.

Here's how it works: Once a Chapter 13 bankruptcy case is filed with the bankruptcy court, the bankruptcy laws provide that no legal action can be taken against you or your property without court permission. This is called the “automatic stay”, (“stay” being another word for injunction). The good news for those in foreclosure? The filing of a bankruptcy case will stop even foreclosures, and even on the day the foreclosure is scheduled as long as it is filed before the actual foreclosure sale occurs.

Once the case is filed, you will be required to file a plan of repayment with the court. The plan will provide that you begin making your regular mortgage payments – usually beginning on the next scheduled payment date. Some bankruptcy courts will have you make your mortgage payment to the Chapter 13 trustee, who will in turn pay the mortgage servicer. Other courts allow you to make your payment directly to your creditor.

Here's the good part. All those delinquent payments you've missed can be paid back over the course of five years. The repayment plan will calculate how much needs to be paid back, along with other loans like car loans that might also be delinquent. To the extent your budget will allow, you might also be required to pay back all or a portion of the unsecured debt (credit card balances, medical bills, personal loans, etc.) that you owe.

Here are two important bonuses. If you qualify, you may be able to use your Chapter 13 plan to renegotiate high interest rates on car loans. In addition, once your plan is approved by the court, any unsecured debt that remains unpaid at the end of the five year repayment period may be forgiven (bankruptcy lawyers call that “discharged.”)

Chapter 13 bankruptcy is not an easy row to hoe. You will be required to stick to a strict budget. If you become delinquent in your plan payments, your case might be dismissed. If you get behind on your house payments, the lender can petition the court to allow it foreclose anyway. But, if you're able to successfully complete your repayment plan, you'll emerge from Chapter 13 bankruptcy with a current mortgage, perhaps a paid off car, and much less unsecured debt.

Great! How do I get started?

Although it is possible to file a Chapter 13 bankruptcy without the help of a lawyer, no one would recommend it. Chapter 13 is complex, and there are many pitfalls for the unwary. An experienced bankruptcy attorney will know the right steps to take. Even if you don't have the money to pay an attorney, most attorneys do not charge for an initial consultation. If you and your bankruptcy attorney decide that Chapter 13 is best solution for you, most Chapter 13 repayment plans can be set up to allow you to pay your attorney over time through the plan payments. In some cases, even the filing fee charged by the bankruptcy court can be paid in installments.

The important thing to remember is that you must act quickly. The Bankruptcy Code requires that you receive a session of credit counseling to help you in making this important decision. If you wait till the eve of foreclosure, it may be too difficult to obtain proof of that counseling and to gather enough information to make the bankruptcy filing possible.

Where do I find a qualified attorney?

An excellent source is the National Association of Consumer Bankruptcy Attorneys, www.nacba.com, which keeps an up-to-date database with information on its member attorneys. You can also contact your local bar association, which keeps a list of referral attorneys.

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Brad Friedman and Desi Doyen: Green <b>News</b> Report — February 18 <b>…</b>

TWITTER: @GreenNewsReport IN TODAY'S RADIO REPORT: Wacky weather Down Under; San Francisco's fog of change; Permafrost shifts North …

Some non-<b>news</b> – The Explosm Fora

Some non-<b>news</b> Site <b>News</b>. … But.. this is <b>news</b>.. Anyways, nice work on the youtube channel, very nice. Wait, you hired a musical director?! Edited Note Last edited by Decky : 02-18-2010 at 6:47 PM. Decky is online now Event Log. Decky …

Bits Scan: Thursday's Tech <b>News</b> Roundup – Bits Blog – NYTimes.com

Over the past 18 months, hackers have breached more than 2500 private and government computers, Kodak isn't happy with Apple and Research and Motion, and David Pogue reviews Google Buzz.

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lJLpUckib0w

A payroll accountant is responsible for administering the company's salary and wages system and ensuring that employees are properly paid. The payroll accountant may work closely with the personnel or human resources department, but is generally a member of the accounting, finance or controller's department. This is due to the need to segregate duties and responsibilities as part of an adequate internal control system.

In a large company with a significant number of employees, the payroll processing function may constitute a separate department, or there may be one person in accounting who spends all or most of his or her time performing payroll functions. In a smaller business, with fewer employees, the payroll function may be combined with other administrative duties such as accounts receivable, accounts payable, and the cashier function. These duties may be performed by just one person, in an office manager or similar position. And, in many companies the payroll function is outsourced to another company that specializes in payroll services. In a company that provides payroll services, the different payroll functions may be broken down, with different persons specializing in different areas of payroll.�

What Does a Payroll Accountant Do?

The duties of a payroll accountant can be grouped into input functions, processing functions, and output functions. In a small company with only a few employees, the payroll may be done manually, or basic payroll software may be used. In this case, the payroll system may be a module of the overall accounting software package. In a larger company the payroll system may be a program specially developed for the company. Regardless of the payroll processing methods used, there needs to be an administrative control and review system in place to ensure that the payroll is being processed correctly, in accordance with established parameters and legal requirements.

The following are some examples of the types of duties a payroll accountant will perform, which can vary depending on the type of system used.�

Payroll Input
� Entering and updating employee master file data.
� Keeping individual and/or electronic files for each employee, including the job application form, personal resume, offer letter, contract, W-4 withholding tax statement, insurance and other benefit plan application forms, and action forms from the personnel or human resources department.
� Collecting time accounting data from time cards, time sheets, time clock, time reports or other media.
� Collecting, assembling and entering, or controlling the entry of data such as sick time, vacation time and other paid time not worked.
� Inputting payroll variations, such as overtime hours, bonuses, profit sharing and other payments.
� Entering data for employee payroll deductions, such as for health insurance and other benefit plans.
� Updating data used in payroll calculations, such as employees' income tax withholding rates and the employer's payroll tax burden.
� Updating employee payroll data for pay increases such as raises in salary or wages.
� Assigning general ledger and cost center numbers to payroll expense components.�

Payroll Processing
� Carrying out the internal controls designed for the payroll system to ensure accurate processing.
� Reviewing preliminary payroll reports for accuracy before generating the payroll run, in a computerized system.
� Calculating the payroll in a manual system.
� Making the necessary arrangements, communicating requirements, and coordinating with a payroll service if the payroll function is outsourced.�

Payroll Output
� Preparing the checks or bank transfers, and payroll stubs or statements in a manual system.
� Receiving paychecks or bank transfer notices from a computerized payroll system, or from an outside payroll service.
� Reviewing payroll reports and paychecks for accuracy and completeness.
� Distributing paychecks or bank transfer notices, and pay stubs or pay statements to employees.
� Preparing the accounting entry, or reviewing the computer-generated entry to record the payroll.
� Arranging for bank transfers to cover the payroll cost.
� Answering employees' questions about their paychecks.�

What Are the Working Conditions Like?

A payroll accountant works in an administrative capacity, in normal office conditions. While the payroll accountant will normally report to the controller, finance manager, or to a senior-level accountant in the accounting, finance, or administration department of a larger organization, the payroll function may be part of a multi-task administrative position in a smaller organization. In this case, the payroll function may be combined with accounts receivable, accounts payable, bookkeeping, and other administrative duties.

The payroll position carries with it a great deal of personal responsibility, and the payroll accountant must be capable of assuming this responsibility, often working under pressure to meet deadlines for having all payroll entry data posted in time to run the payroll process and pay the employees.�

What Are The Requirements?

The person in charge of payroll must have general knowledge of labor laws, payroll taxes and benefit plans, and specific knowledge of company policies and procedures regarding salary and wages and benefit plan administration. A working knowledge of computer systems as a user is needed. If the company has a specialized payroll computer system, the payroll accountant must clearly understand the procedures and steps to be followed in using the system.�

Accounting Degree

An accounting degree is not necessarily required to be a payroll accountant, although many times the person in charge of payroll may be a degreed accountant or may be pursuing an accounting degree. But it is possible for a person with knowledge of the company's payroll system and the associated administrative internal control system, to make a career in payroll without having a degree.�

Confidentiality

One of the most important qualities for a payroll accountant is discretion in handling confidential information. The payroll accountant has access to information on employees that few other persons have, and this information must be protected.�

Organizational Ability

Another important trait is organization and the ability to handle and process information in a timely, complete, and orderly manner. While payroll procedures are repetitive by nature, the payroll accountant must ensure that all changes are properly handled each pay period in order to ensure that all employees are paid the correct amount. In this sense, the payroll accountant must possess a well-developed sense of responsibility and self-initiative.�

People Skills

People skills are important in coordinating with other members of the accounting department, with the personnel or human resources department, and with members of other departments, at different levels in the organization. The payroll accountant will also deal directly with employees when questions arise regarding their pay, and there may be occasional contacts with insurance companies, outside benefit plan administrators, and other receivers of payroll deductions and employee obligations, such as court-ordered withholding. The payroll person may also have contact with governmental taxing authorities.�

What Are The Prospects?

There is always a need for qualified payroll accountants, no matter how automated the payroll system may be. The payroll process requires human intervention to input new hires, update the files for terminated employees, input changes in levels of remuneration, promotions and other changes for existing personnel, changes in personal data that affect benefit plans, tax withholding and other deductions. And there must be a person responsible for ensuring that the payroll process is carried out in an effective and timely manner, according to pre-established criteria and procedures, and satisfying internal controls.�

Accounting

Payroll accounting can be a career in itself, especially in a large company with a payroll department, or in a payroll service company. And, experience as a payroll accountant can lead to a higher-level position in the accounting or finance department of a larger organization.�

Human Resources

A person who has worked in payroll could also take a different direction, leading to a career in human resources. The experience gained in working with the company's salary and wages administration system, time-keeping, employee deductions, and benefit plans, can be good preparation for working in human resources�

Office Manager

If the payroll function is performed as one of several administrative functions, experience in payroll will make the person more experienced and qualified, and therefore more valuable in any overall administrative role. Combining payroll experience with experience in accounts receivable, accounts payable, and bookkeeping is very good preparation for an office manager or similar position.

WH: Some Critics 'Serving the Goals of al Qaeda'* – Political Punch

In an oped in USA Today, John Brennan — Assistant to the President and Deputy National Security Advisor for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism — responds to critics of the Obama administration's counterterrorism policies by …

Green House launches USB 3.0 Interface Board, max. 5Gbps transfer <b>…</b>

Claiming to be capable of high speed data transfer of max. 5Gbps for USB 3.0, this latest interface board from Green House, a.k.a GH-UIPE302, is also PCI Express x1 bus compliant and supports Windows 7/ Vista/ XP OS. …

Bill O'Reilly Defends Fox <b>News News</b> VP Who Gave His Tea Party <b>…</b>

Bill O'Reilly spent several segments last night discussing the tea party movement and attempting to defend Fox <b>News</b> VP of <b>News</b> and Washington managing editor Bill Sammon for his blanket statement about the mainstream media's 'hatred' of …

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WH: Some Critics 'Serving the Goals of al Qaeda'* – Political Punch

In an oped in USA Today, John Brennan — Assistant to the President and Deputy National Security Advisor for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism — responds to critics of the Obama administration's counterterrorism policies by …

Green House launches USB 3.0 Interface Board, max. 5Gbps transfer <b>…</b>

Claiming to be capable of high speed data transfer of max. 5Gbps for USB 3.0, this latest interface board from Green House, a.k.a GH-UIPE302, is also PCI Express x1 bus compliant and supports Windows 7/ Vista/ XP OS. …

Bill O'Reilly Defends Fox <b>News News</b> VP Who Gave His Tea Party <b>…</b>

Bill O'Reilly spent several segments last night discussing the tea party movement and attempting to defend Fox <b>News</b> VP of <b>News</b> and Washington managing editor Bill Sammon for his blanket statement about the mainstream media's 'hatred' of …

WH: Some Critics 'Serving the Goals of al Qaeda'* – Political Punch

In an oped in USA Today, John Brennan — Assistant to the President and Deputy National Security Advisor for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism — responds to critics of the Obama administration's counterterrorism policies by …

Green House launches USB 3.0 Interface Board, max. 5Gbps transfer <b>…</b>

Claiming to be capable of high speed data transfer of max. 5Gbps for USB 3.0, this latest interface board from Green House, a.k.a GH-UIPE302, is also PCI Express x1 bus compliant and supports Windows 7/ Vista/ XP OS. …

Bill O'Reilly Defends Fox <b>News News</b> VP Who Gave His Tea Party <b>…</b>

Bill O'Reilly spent several segments last night discussing the tea party movement and attempting to defend Fox <b>News</b> VP of <b>News</b> and Washington managing editor Bill Sammon for his blanket statement about the mainstream media's 'hatred' of …

/f?id=4af9e13400000000004a9198″ border=”0″ alt=”creditcard7.jpg” />Last summer, Barack Obama vowed to crack down on banks and credit card companies by passing sweeping reforms to bar abusive practices. He was going to get tough with the malefactors of consumer credit.

Well, today the Federal Reserve released new rules to “empower consumers.” And how did the bankers, who spent at least $6.9 million on lobbying in just the first three quarters of last year, react?

They were overjoyed.

Here's the official press release from the American Bankers Association.

CONSUMERS TO BENEFIT FROM FED’S SWEEPING NEW CREDIT CARD RULES

WASHINGTON – The Federal Reserve today released sweeping new rules to empower consumers as part of the Credit Card Accountability, Responsibility, and Disclosure (CARD) Act of 2009.

“These rules – the most comprehensive ever seen – herald a new era for America’s credit card customers,” said Kenneth J. Clayton, Senior Vice President and General Counsel for ABA Card Policy  “Many practices that frustrated customers have been eliminated, and credit card users will now benefit from greater control and clearer terms for their accounts.”

This is the most important step in an ongoing process that will increase protections and make card terms more predictable and manageable for customers….

These new CARD Act provisions build upon the protections that took effect in August 2009 and establish a firm foundation that will allow consumers to better understand and use their credit cards. Later this year, in July and then again in August, that foundation will be strengthened further when the rules to improve customer disclosures and provide other consumer protections are implemented. 

“This February’s improvements mark the most important step in the comprehensive reform of the credit card industry,” said Clayton.  “They put consumers squarely in the driver’s seat by restricting fees and requiring clearer rules and improved disclosures. The bottom line is this: the credit card industry is changing and these new rules will help empower consumers to take control of their personal finances.”

So what are we to make of bankers loving the new regulations? Perhaps they've just become especially public spirited lately. Or have just given up fighting against regulations that endanger their business.

Or, maybe, they got exactly what they wanted.

“If this dynamic — big business applauding regulations Obama touts as blows to the special interests — sounds familiar, it's because we've seen it in tax-prep, tobacco, toys, food, and employer-based health-care, among others,” Tim Carney writes at the Washington Examiner.

Inquiring minds are reading an interesting document by the San Francisco Fed called Global Household Leverage, House Prices, and Consumption.

“ver-investment and over-speculation are often important; but they would have far less serious results were they not conducted with borrowed money.” —Irving Fisher (1933)

In the United States and many other industrial countries, the recent financial crisis contributed to the longest and most severe economic contraction since the Great Depression. The rapid expansion in the use of borrowed money, or leverage, by households in recent years, is one factor that may help account for the virulence of the downturn.

In the years leading up to the crisis, a combination of factors, including low interest rates, lax lending standards, a proliferation of exotic mortgage products, and the growth of a global market for securitized loans fueled a rapid increase in household borrowing. An influx of new and often speculative homebuyers with access to easy credit helped bid up U.S. house prices to unprecedented levels relative to rents or disposable income. U.S. household leverage, as measured by the ratio of debt to personal disposable income, reached an all-time high, exceeding 130% in 2007 (see Glick and Lansing 2009). National house prices peaked in 2006 and have since dropped by about 30%. The bursting of the housing bubble set off a chain of events that pushed the U.S. economy into a severe recession that started in December 2007.

This Economic Letter shows that the recent U.S. experience is by no means unique. Household leverage in many industrial countries increased dramatically in the years prior to 2007. Countries with the largest increases in household leverage tended to experience the fastest rise in house prices over the same period. Moreover, these same countries tended to experience the most severe declines in consumption once house prices started falling. The common patterns observed across countries suggest that, as in the United States, the unwinding of excess household leverage via increased saving or increased default rates could be a significant drag on consumption and bank lending going forward, possibly muting the vigor of the economic recovery.

Household leverage and consumption: U.S. county data

The typical residential housing transaction is financed largely with borrowed money. The use of such leverage to purchase an asset magnifies the risk assumed by the buyer. If the value of the asset subsequently drops, as in a burst bubble, the debt incurred to buy the asset remains in place and the buyer must still repay the loan in full. If the debt exceeds the asset's market value, refinancing options are limited. If the debt is very large relative to the buyer's income, repayment can strain the buyer's finances, forcing a reduction in other spending. And if the strain becomes too great, the buyer may be forced to default, shifting some or all of the loss to the lender or the taxpayer if the loan is government-insured.

Using data on household borrowing for the 450 largest U.S. counties by population, Mian and Sufi (2009a,b) provide evidence that the rapid rise in household leverage in recent years was a primary driver of the recession that began in December 2007. Their analysis identifies several important patterns.

• First, they find that house prices rose faster in areas where subprime mortgages were more prevalent. This suggests the existence of a self-reinforcing feedback loop in which new buyers with access to easy mortgage credit helped fuel the run-up in prices by bidding competitively for houses, which in turn encouraged lenders to ease credit even further based on the assumption that house prices would continue to appreciate indefinitely.
• Second, the authors find that for each incremental dollar of house price appreciation, the average homeowner extracted about 25 to 30 cents in cash via home equity borrowing, which was used primarily for consumption or home improvement. This indicates that house price appreciation fueled by easy mortgage credit was a significant driver of economic growth during the boom years.
• Third, they find that counties that experienced the largest increases in leverage tended to experience the sharpest rise in loan defaults and the most severe recessions, where severity is measured by the subsequent fall in consumption of durable goods or the subsequent rise in the unemployment rate. The last point suggests that recession severity in a given area reflects the degree to which prior growth there was driven by an unsustainable borrowing trend–one which came to an abrupt halt once house prices stopped rising.

Household leverage and consumption: International data

Figure 1 depicts the increase in the household leverage ratio, defined as household debt as a percent of disposable income including transfers, in the United States and 15 other industrial countries over a 10-year period ending in 2007, according to data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

Compared to the U.S. household leverage ratio of around 130% in 2007, leverage ratios were significantly higher in some countries, including Denmark (199%), Ireland (191%), and Netherlands (185%), but lower in others, such as Italy (43%), France (60%), Belgium (64%), and Germany (82%).

Figure 2 plots the trajectory of real house prices in the United States and other industrial countries since 1997. Austria, Belgium, and Portugal are omitted due to lack of data. Real house prices in the United States rose by roughly 50%, reaching a peak in 2006. House prices in other industrial countries also rose substantially and in most cases more than in the United States. At their peaks, prices rose the most in Ireland (172%), United Kingdom (146%), Spain (118%), and France and Sweden (108%), followed by Denmark, (89%), Netherlands (75%), and Italy (61%). These dramatic run-ups, which far exceeded the growth in disposable incomes over the same period, show that housing bubbles were widespread. The two exceptions were Japan and Germany, where real house prices fell over this period. However, both countries had previously experienced large run-ups in house prices during the late 1980s and early 1990s.

Household Leverage

Home Prices

Household Leverage vs. Home Prices

Household Leverage vs. Consumption

Conclusion

Going forward, the efforts of households in many countries to reduce their elevated debt loads via increased saving could result in sluggish recoveries of consumer spending. Higher saving rates and correspondingly lower rates of domestic consumption growth would mean that a larger share of GDP growth would need to come from business investment, net exports, or government spending. Debt reduction might also be accomplished via various forms of default, such as real estate short sales, foreclosures, and bankruptcies. But such deleveraging involves significant costs for consumers, including tax liabilities on forgiven debt, legal fees, and lower credit scores.

As countries begin to emerge from the recession, it is important to consider what lessons might be learned for the conduct of policy. History suggests that asset price bubbles can be extraordinarily costly when accompanied by significant increases in borrowing. During the recent housing bubble, underwriting standards were weakened and credit extension rose at abnormally high rates, creating a self-reinforcing feedback loop that drove house prices upward. In the aftermath of a global boom-and-bust cycle in credit and housing, financial regulators should take the necessary steps to prevent a replay of this damaging episode.

Bernanke In Denial

The first thing that comes to mind is the San Francisco Fed has it correct. Bernanke is in obvious denial as noted in Ben Bernanke Looks In Mirror, Sees Barney Frank.

Bernanke is pointing the finger at everyone but himself, primarily blaming regulation.

There is no possible regulation that can stop a credit binge brought about by cheap money and fractional reserve lending that enabled Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to borrow money into existence at will.

Remember that the Fed that could not see there was a bubble, could not see there was a recession coming, and thought at numerous points along the way that the mess was “contained”. Even if regulation would have helped, the Fed was oblivious at the time. How can regulation help, when you cannot spot obvious bubbles?

Before Bernanke blamed regulation Bernanke Blames Saving Glut For Housing Bubble. Bear in mind it is absolutely impossible to have too much savings, but that is not the way Keynesian and monetarist clowns think.

Also bear in mind that “Two weeks into the job, Bernanke testified before Congress that it was a positive that the nation's homeownership rate had reached nearly 70 percent, in part because of subprime loans.” (See Anatomy of a Meltdown for details).

Fed Is The “Great Enabler”

Credit bubbles have their foundation in loose monetary policy that makes borrowing appear attractive. Those bubbles may manifest in the form of stock market bubbles as in the Nasdaq in 1997-2000 or housing in 2004-2007. Indeed the Fed is the “Great Enabler” of bubbles.

Had by some miracle, regulation managed to contain housing (impossible actually because Bernanke could not see a bubble brewing and therefore would not have regulated a thing), the loose credit would simply have manifested itself in another way, just as happened in 2000 with the Nasdaq stock bubble.

The San Francisco article all but comes out and lays the blame on Bernanke. They won't say it but I will. Bernanke is a hopeless academic, trapped in a wonderland of formulas that have no bearing in the real world.

Bernanke should voluntarily step down in disgrace. If he refuses to do so, he should not be reappointed.

Finally, the Fed's (and central bankers in general) reflation efforts are doomed to fail because they bailed out the banks and left consumers still swamped in debt. Please see Fictional Reserve Lending And The Myth Of Excess Reserves for a complete discussion.

Having learned their lesson at taxpayer expense, and fearing they will not be bailed out next time, banks won't lend. Moreover, the bailout policies of the Fed and Congress ensure that banks will not lend as there are few credit worthy borrowers, and even fewer credit worthy borrowers who want to expand businesses.

Not only did the Fed enable the credit bubble, it blew the policy response. All it takes to prove that is another stock market plunge and credit crunch. Both are coming, we just don't know when.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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